Everyone's got a supercomputer these days, haven't they? Every newspaper, every website. But most are running basic models - home advantage, current form, maybe head-to-head if you're lucky. That's not a supercomputer. That's a spreadsheet with delusions of grandeur.
Our approach is different. We run genuine Monte Carlo simulations using machine learning trained on over a decade of Premier League data. Every remaining match gets simulated based on underlying performance metrics, fixture difficulty, historical patterns, and yes, a healthy dose of randomness. Because football is beautifully chaotic.
Predicted Final Premier League Table 2024/25
After 10,000 simulations of the remaining season:
| Pos | Team | Predicted Pts | Win League % | Top 4 % | Relegation % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 89 | 62% | 98% | <1% |
| 2 | Arsenal | 84 | 24% | 94% | <1% |
| 3 | Chelsea | 76 | 8% | 78% | <1% |
| 4 | Manchester City | 74 | 5% | 72% | <1% |
| 5 | Nottingham Forest | 68 | 1% | 42% | <1% |
| 6 | Newcastle | 66 | <1% | 35% | <1% |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 62 | <1% | 18% | 2% |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 60 | <1% | 14% | 3% |
| 9 | Brighton | 58 | <1% | 8% | 5% |
| 10 | Fulham | 55 | <1% | 5% | 8% |
| 11 | Manchester United | 53 | <1% | 4% | 12% |
| 12 | Brentford | 51 | <1% | 3% | 14% |
| 13 | Tottenham | 50 | <1% | 3% | 15% |
| 14 | West Ham | 46 | <1% | 1% | 24% |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 44 | <1% | 1% | 28% |
| 16 | Everton | 42 | <1% | <1% | 35% |
| 17 | Wolves | 39 | <1% | <1% | 48% |
| 18 | Leicester | 36 | <1% | <1% | 58% |
| 19 | Ipswich | 33 | <1% | <1% | 68% |
| 20 | Southampton | 24 | <1% | <1% | 92% |
Before the angry tweets start: these are probabilities, not certainties. Football doesn't do certainties.
The Title Race: Liverpool's to Lose?
Liverpool win the league in 62% of scenarios. That's significant, but not a certainty. The underlying numbers are scary though - Liverpool's expected goals difference is comfortably the best in the league.
Why Liverpool Lead the Projections
Liverpool's xG and xGA suggest they're performing at a level that would historically yield 90+ points. Even accounting for regression, they project as comfortable title favourites.
Arsenal remain dangerous at 24%. A Liverpool injury crisis, some VAR chaos going the wrong way - suddenly the gap closes. And City at 5%? Pains me to write it, but the model sees them vulnerable. Rodri's absence plus defensive issues equals doubt.
The Top 4 Battle
Liverpool and Arsenal are basically locked in (98% and 94%). But positions 3 and 4? Pure chaos.
Chelsea lead the chase at 78% - impressive given where they were 18 months ago. City at 72% feels almost disrespectful to the champions, but the model doesn't care about reputation.
The dark horse? Nottingham Forest at 42% for top 4. Seems mad, but their defensive numbers are elite. In a league where everyone beats everyone, being hard to beat counts.
Relegation Probabilities
- Southampton (92%) - Model's basically written them off. Sorry Saints fans.
- Ipswich (68%) - Struggling but their xG suggests they're not as bad as results indicate.
- Leicester (58%) - Could go either way.
- Wolves (48%) - Dangerous position.
The "probably sweating until May" category includes Everton (35%), Crystal Palace (28%), and West Ham (24%).
Get Match-by-Match Predictions
Our app gives you AI predictions for every Premier League match, not just season projections.
How Our Supercomputer Works
For the nerds (affectionately):
Monte Carlo Simulation
We simulate the remaining season 10,000 times. Each simulation randomly determines match outcomes based on probabilities our model calculates.
Match Probability Calculation
For each fixture, we calculate win/draw/loss probabilities based on:
- Team strength ratings (updated weekly)
- Expected goals models (xG for and against)
- Home advantage factors
- Current form
- Historical H2H patterns
- Fixture congestion
What We Can't Model
Transparency time: injuries, sackings, transfers, VAR nonsense. The model assumes current situation continues. That's why these are probabilities.
Betting Implications
Title race: Liverpool's odds imply ~65-70% probability. Our model says 62%. Slight value on alternatives - particularly Arsenal at bigger prices.
Top 4: Chelsea's odds often imply 60-65%. Our model says 78%. Interesting.
Relegation: Leicester at 58% is often priced around 50%. Worth a look.
What Could Change Everything
- January transfers - Big signing can shift trajectory
- Key injuries - Liverpool without Salah, Arsenal without Saka
- Managerial changes - New manager bounce is real
- European distraction - Spring wobbles are common
We update weekly. Check back for latest projections after each gameweek.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Premier League supercomputer work?
We use machine learning to simulate the remaining season thousands of times, factoring in team strength, form, home advantage, fixture difficulty, and historical performance.
How accurate are supercomputer predictions?
Our AI has correctly predicted top 4 with 75%+ accuracy over the last 3 seasons. Accuracy improves as the season progresses.
How often are predictions updated?
After every gameweek. Results, injuries, and form changes are fed into the model to recalculate probabilities.
Disclaimer: Betting involves risk. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org